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OWL-Program za analizu nogometnih susreta
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  Narralol

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Pristupio/la: 16.Travanj.2012
Poruke: 1
Poslano: 16.Travanj.2012 u 14:29 | IP zapisan Citiram Narralol

OWL - Program za analizu nogometnih susreta

Projekt OWL je započet u listopadu 2010. godine u Samoboru, kao posljedica dugogodišnjeg rada na području praćenja sporta kroz igre na sreću. Ideja OWL-a je razvijanje programa koji bi predstavljao besplatan alat za kladioničarske prognozere, statističare i analizatore te sve druge ljubitelje nogometa koji žele analizu nogometnog ligaškog susreta. OWL trenutno podržava lige engleske, njemačke i španjolske prve lige zbog najveće pouzdanosti. U ranijim verzijama OWL-a rađene su kalkulacije sa talijanskom prvom ligom, no pokazala se nepouzdanom te je iz istog razloga izbačena. Ono što izdvaja OWL od ostalih programa jest njegova realna procjena spremnosti momčadi, koja u analizu uzima u obzir odsutnost igrača. Dakle ukoliko jedan ili više igrača neće biti prisutno na tekućoj utakmici postotak će biti umanjen odnosno uvećan ovisno o analizatorskom elementu u odnosu na drugu momčad, što bi značilo u idealnom okršaju dvije momčadi gdje su statistike obje jednake, ako momčad A prisustvuje susretu bez jednog igrača, pobjeda momčadi B će biti uvećana za onoliko koliko taj igrač pridodaje ukupnoj snazi momčadi A. Također u analizu je uključen i hendikep faktor gostujuće momčadi koji trenutno iznosi 10%. Uz brojne analize i višemjesečna testiranja program je dostigao preciznost od ± 4%. Važno je napomenuti da su prognoze i analize programa vjerodostojne od 11. do 5. kola prije završetka prvenstva.

Vizija OWL-a jest, freeware 'open source' program koji bi kolektivnim razvojem uz pomoć njegovih korisnika dosegao vrhunac alatke koja bi služila kao početna točka budućih analizatora nogometnih susreta i ljubitelja sporta. Trenutna faza u kojoj se nalazi OWL jest potražnja za njegovim korisnicima koji bi testirali program, ukazali na pogreške te svojim komentarima i primjedbama poboljšali cijelokupni program. Formule su vidljive svim korisnicima, te svaki korisnik je slobodan promjeniti sve analizatorske elemente u programu prema svojoj volji. Službena verzija će uvijek biti objavljena na stranici sa svim izmjenama i nadopunama.

Ukoliko je netko zainteresiran da testira, program se nalazi na Facebooku : www.facebook.com/OWLprogram


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  robbbi

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Svaku utakmicu na koju mislite da uložite novac trebate dobro analizirati i odlučiti da li vredi kladiti se na nju ili ne. Kada se odabere određena liga pristupa se analizi parova prikupljanjem informacija. Svaka analiza potrebno je da sadrži sledeće informacije:

MOTIVACIJA - Motivacija je izuzetno važna za rezultate neke ekipe. Glavni razlog zašto neke slabije ekipe pobede mnogo jače protivnike je upravo u motivaciji. Često ekipe koje igraju u evropskim kupovima su manje motivisane za prvenstvene
utakmice. Isto tako ekipe kojima preti ispadanje iz lige imaju veću motivaciju od onih koji su već osigurali ostanak. Neke ekipe, ako vide da nemaju više šansi da osvoje prvenstvo, žele osvojiti kup pa tu igraju mnogo bolje nego na drugim utakmicama. Promena trenera takođe puno doprinosi motivaciji ekipe, jer igrači nastoje da se dokažu novom treneru.

STANJE EKIPE - Ovde je potrebno sakupiti informacije o stanju obe ekipe na tabeli, ambicijama tima u tom takmičenju, budžetu timova, međusobnim duelima u poslednjih 5 sezona i više, razlog za ovo je što mečevi nekih ekipa imaju neku svoju logiku koja često nema nikakve veze s trenutnom formom. Poznato je da neke ekipe ne uspevaju pobediti na određenim stadionima i preko 10 godina bez obzira koliko su trenutno "jake". Pregled rezultata u prethodnim kolima oba tima: pobede, nerešene i porazi.

SASTAVI - Što više informacija o povređenim i suspendovanim igračima koji propuštaju meč, karakteristike trenera oba tima (defanzivan, ofanzivan, formacije…), info u sudiji tog meča.

FORMA - Forma jedne ekipe je najvažniji faktor koji kladionice gledaju prilikom određivanja koeficijenata. Tačno određivanje forme neke ekipe, njeni usponi ili padovi mogu vam doneti mnogo novca. Najbolje je pri tome izabrati nekoliko ekipa ili liga koje ćete aktivno pratiti tokom sezone. Tako ćete vrlo brzo biti u mogućnosti da uočite da li forma neke ekipe počinje rasti ili padati, čak i pre kladionica, i na taj način steći prednost.

VESTI - Pratite sve vesti koje bi mogle imati uticaja na učinak neke ekipe, kao što su crveni kartoni, povrede i dr. Posebno je važno znati pravilno protumačiti te vesti. Često vest da je povređen jedan od glavnih igrača neke ekipe ima za posledicu porast koeficijenta za tu ekipu, tj. pad koeficijenta na protivnika, jer se smatra da je ta povreda hendikep za tu ekipu. Međutim velike i bogate evropske ekipe imaju često na klupi ne samo dostojne zamene nego nekad čak i bolje igrače za zamenu, pa ta povreda i nije neki hendikep.

STATISTIKA - Statistika igranja kod kuće i u gostima: Uvek proverite ove statistike. Neke ekipe igraju potpuno različito kod kuće i u gostima, npr. u gostima gube skoro sve utakmice dok su kod kuće nepobedivi. Moguće je da takva ekipa na primer igra dva puta kod kuće i pobedi, pa im je sledeća gostujuća utakmica iz nekog razloga odložena, pa opet pobede kod kuće. Zbog takve tri pobede u nizu kladionice joj mogu dati prilično krivi koeficijent za sledeću gostujuću utakmicu. Takve situacije treba uočiti i iskoristiti.

RASPORED - Događa se da neke ekipe imaju vrlo tesan raspored (liga, domaći kupovi, evropski kupovi), što dovodi do prevelikog zamora, pa se ekipe namerno čuvaju za utakmice koje su im važnije dok na ostalim igraju mnogo slabije.

USLOVI IGRANJA - Proverite kakvi su vremenski uslovi za igranje na nekom stadionu. Ako pada kiša, teren je loš pa ne očekujte žestoku borbu i puno golova (često odlična prilika za under 2.5 gola). Vrlo verovatno je da će ekipe samo rutinski odraditi tu utakmicu bez puno nadmetanja. Isto tako vidite koliko putuje gostujuća ekipa. Ekipa koja mora proputovati pola kontinenta u nekim evropskim kupovima često zbog umora pokaže puno manje na terenu nego što bi pokazala da nije morala toliko putovati.

Ako se za prethodne stavke sakupi dovoljno informacija i analiza obradi kvalitetno bez mešanja navijačkih strasti i ostalih subjektivnih gledanja na stvari (forsiranja vrednosti pojedinaca/timova i umanjivanje vrednosti drugih) može se reći da ste završili oko 70% posla.
U ostalih 30% koji odlučuju ishod, spadaju stvari na koje se ne može uticati.


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